The short answer
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Does the office change the answer?
Less than you would think
Dashed line = a coin flip (50%). Everything to its right is a money-leader edge.
Which money?
Raised is not spent — and it changes who counts as the money candidate
Measured by money spent
Measured by money raised
More money, more votes
The share of the money tracks the share of the vote
Won the seat
Lost
Diagonal = money share equals vote share exactly
How much does outspending help?
The more you outspend, the more you win
Each bar: how often the biggest-spending candidate won, grouped by how many times more they spent than the next-biggest spender.
When money lost